EP 8 - Mean Gurlz

 The Hangry Survivor - Stop trying to make idols happen!

So we're getting a bit carried away with the production value of this blog. I'm not sure if they've finished all of the production elements for Season 50, but Jeff, consider me available.

This was a bit of a messy episode to spectate. Reeling from the bombshell that is another OG-Red tribe member being shown the door (in this case, a lovely door that gets you a seat at the all inclusive Ponderosa spa and hotel) and a seat on the jury, folks are questioning their loyalties and what it means for the OG-ethos.

The Spectrum

Savanah (OG-Red) *I deserve this*

Rizo (OG-Red) 

Sophi (OG-Blue) *RED-y to realign

Jawan (OG-Red) *Cold feet*

Sage (OG-Red) 

Alex (OG-Blue) 

Steven (OG-Yellow) 

MC (OG-Yellow) 

Kristina (OG-Yellow) 

Sophie (OG-Yellow) 

The colour palette 

We're seeing the orange middle grow, and I do get the sense we're going to see those OG loyalties fade entirely.

Deeply entrenched

AKA, the folks who are clinging onto OG identity

RED

Savannah was the main focus of this episode. She's reeling after the vote last episode, recognizing she's been completely comfortable in her position without keeping her finger on the pulse on the rest of the game, which will happily continue without her if she doesn't hang on. 

In quite a touching and revealing moment, she divulges a bit of her history about being locked into a hostile workplace where she's not given the time of day by her peers (who sound bitter that she was replacing a different reporter they felt were more deserving of the role). I have to admit, this was a moment I softened up a bit around how Savannah had been playing thus far, and read it as "ah, this is a survival response and her asserting her personal agency, coming from a situation where that felt ripped away from her". 

Let me just say, never has a bank of good will be filled so quickly, and drained just as fast. The "I deserve this" "I earned this" "I'm the biggest and baddest player EVARRRR" (some slight embellishments - Editor) took what could have been a real character redeeming element and chucked it straight in the trash. 

Savannah, sitting pretty with the idol, and a huge set of advantages (not only attending tribal and having the ability to vote, but also bank her vote if she wants) is an epic reversal of fate. 

Rizo, who at this point is convinced he's a strategic mastermind, rides this wave of good fortune and holds his idol yet again. I will say he makes an extremely salient point, if you're going out at 10 vs 4, if there's an idol in your pocket vs getting full value for it when you actually need it (which I'll be honest, FELT LIKE THIS TIME) is an important distinction to make. The Riz-g-o-d, seems to think he has Sage and Jawan back on team red which he may have by the grace of a Savannah-wraith risk.

Rules check:

This is something I've always wondered, do the contestants end up seeing all the votes, or is it true to the show in what the viewers see with it stopping when someone is out? In this case it makes a huge difference in terms of Savannah's threat level and revealing her advantage (banked vote).

YELLOW

aka, anti-Rizo and Savannah Tribe

Sophie-Yellow, who I guess we're just treating as a fully fledged character after all (okay, we'll just ignore that she barely made the credits for the first few episodes), has demonstrated that she's not only here, she's in it to win it...and almost wins her second immunity challenge of the merge. I have to be honest, she's showing too much tenacity and character in the latest episodes for me to think this is just emerging now, it's wild how the Sage-Shannon beef just occupied her screen time but it's gone and she's here. She's a gamer and finds herself in a dicey situation at tribal and plays it masterfully...more on that later.

Katrina goes on an idol scavenging adventure and hits the jackpot! Steven and Alex being part of her idol crew bolster all three going into the next episode (and none of which are heading to tribal). Katrina does nothing else of relevance in the episode.

Orange to Grey

These folks are seeing the bigger picture of how the post-merge game is unfolding and jostling for positions in the new grey landscape

(Flash back to last week's blog post) "Sophie Blue is Red through and through" *repeats several times and fades out*

Sophi-Blue declares she's willing to join anyone who's willing to work with her going forward (any port in a storm). It's wise and feels authentic when you recognize the threat level on OG-Red. What she has done a good job with in the edit is pitching herself as just blowing in the wind and sheltering wherever she can. I don't entirely buy it, but she's doing a good job of selling it and folks seem to be going with it.  She's positioning herself well in spreading her social capital while maintaining her roots with Rizo and Savannah.

MC is in an interesting position. She played her idol which at first glance I thought was the right play, it takes the heat off of her and keeps her safe in the last vote. What I honestly hadn't considered, was the fallout of playing an idol unexpectedly. Jawan and a few others read this as a lack of trust, which for both MC and the others lays bare how dangerous the players seem to read plays that cross OG-tribal lines. There are two ways to interpret this. One is that the other players see it as a loss that they had someone they felt on the same wavelength as and they've pitched a potential valuable tool in having an allied idol, the other is that they see a player that put their personal safety for tribal first and they smell the vulnerability from a very capable challenge player and are going for blood. In either case, I don't think MC was ever going to occupy GOAT status so there is a clear opening for her to leave the game.

Steven and Alex are starting to show a bit more of the collaboration I expected them to show, going off and sniffing out the idol with Kristina. Neither spots it but they're growing their social capital with Kristina finding it. Both are continuing to keep themselves off the high-threat radar, ngl I love it.

Sage and Jawan have the potential to make some major moves but are bitten by the ole'Savannah advantage bug and Jawan gets gun-shy. While it's a real opportunity to cut the head off the snake (and this could be said for Sophie-Yellow or Savannah/Rizo) doing it at this stage gets Sage and Jawan so elevated in the threat charts that I think it's right to back off. I'm also quite glad Sage didn't overstep and lead the charge by herself, she's playing a VERY nuanced game, her social IQ is superb (extroverts take note!). Jawan is one advantage or idol away from going deep in the game. I get the sense that if he doesn't get it, he'll be fodder for a Savannah-led OG-Red clawback.  

Tribal, putting it all on Red:

I genuinely thought Savannah and Rizo were making a colossal mistake by not playing their advantages/idols. I read it as they're in hot water, put up your defences and fight another day. Jawan is the pivotal player in this outcome, if he doesn't smell danger, Sage doesn't change course, if she doesn't' change course OG-Yellow doesn't feel the heat, and if they don't feel the heat, they're not scrambling at the end it doesn't become a slam dunk between Sophie-Yellow and MC. 

Sophie-Yellow slams the door on MC highlighting that she is always going to catch votes. In a situation like tribal, where folks are under time pressure (real or imagined/emotional), this gets the reaction she needs to fight another day. 

I am so SO curious about what MC said before the votes. I can only see it as "I will work with you, take out Sophie-Yellow", but then going back to Sophie-Yellow and saying "I'm pitching the vote on Rizo/Savannah, this is our change to destroy them". 

I also REALLY want to know from a production point of view, whether the group got to see all of the votes. I kind of anticipate Jeff reads the votes and then reveals them in the order he choses but I could be totally. It becomes VERY interesting if they sniff out that someone didn't vote (and particularly if someone calculates that Savannah was able to bank her vote).

See-saw numbers:

We are down to 2 OG-Red vs 2 OG-Yellow with ~5 Orange. I see it more as two main groups through and it's hard to determine the actual balance of the two when you weigh in the idols and advantages.

2 Red (Rizo-Savannah) *Idol-advantage

1 Red-leaning Orange (Sophi-Blue) *advantage

3 Orange (Alex-Sage-Jawan) *power of friendship 

1 Yellow-leaning Orange (Steven) 

2 Yellow (Sophie Yellow-Kristina) *Idol

Rapid thoughts on Episode 8:

1) Savannah has the fastest deposit and withdrawal from the bank of goodwill that I've ever seen on Survivor

2) Rizo STILL isn't the strategic mastermind he thinks he is (or maybe he's metagaming so hard it feels like luck to the rest of us mere mortals?)

3) Orange has the numbers, when they rally (or learn about each others positions) the OG-bosses are potentially in trouble

4) Kristina has a reasonably safe ride to the small numbers if she can armour up with her idol and Orange squad

5) Jawan is still doing the right thing at the right time, if his game is revealed and mixed with Savannah's general dislike of him we've got a blindside cocktail (sorry my man, I don't see his fate in the FTC).

6) Sage is just the best person. 

7) Rizo and Savannah, hold POWERFUL cards. If Sophie-Blue continues to prop them up with information and numbers (and her advantage) they're in great shape

8) I want to know what MC said at tribal. Whatever it was involved everyone which I thought was interesting....

9) I am so curious how long the facade of Yellow v Red will continue. I see it melting into a vat of Orange and grey (no tribes dynamic, connections superceding)

10) MC going out was disappointing but not entirely unexpected given her shorter social web and challenge assets, Sophie-Yellow pitching "you'll never have a shortage of people to vote against me" was the masterstroke that sealed her fate in the game

Breakout players (Fantasy Points):

Ep8: Savannah and Kristina (30 points)

                        

Season MVP Race: MC (85), Kristina and Rizo (75)

     

                 

Tribe Points Graph:

WE HAVE A LEAD CHANGE!!!...well kinda. Ryan has caught up with Chelsea who shares the lead among the fantasy tribes with a massive 335 points. Josh sitting comfortably in second place with 310 points, followed by Richard in third with 295 points.

Underdogs (Kristina, Sophie Yellow, and Sage) are threatening with 245 points.

Underdog analysis. So for those new to the blog or not in the fantasy pool, what is our underdog group? Simply put, it's the leftovers, the kids who got picked last (or in this case least) in our survivor draft pool. What our point scoring system has really missed (and may be important going into season fifty) are opportunities for the following:

- Scoring overt toots

- Scoring getting to the merge with as few actual words spoken as possible

- Winning a million hearts with anime faces

- Being the most relatable player

Thank you for reading, as of posting, this has blog has been viewed over >400 times and our reddit posts have had over 45k views...Hi Jeff!

R