EP 6 - I'd hug you, BUT ID STAB YOU...so just a handshake instead
The Hangry Survivor - Revenge is a dish best served cold, and with a lil'SAGE
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Ok, just when I had the two new tribes figured out...then there were three.
A quick RE-refresher, and whatever, it's a merge next episode so what can you do
NEW New Yellow
Sophi (OG-Blue)
Savanah (OG-Red)
Rizo (OG-Red)
MC (OG-Yellow)
NEW New Blue
Jawan (OG-Red)
Sage (OG-Red)
Shannon (OG-Red)
Steven (OG-Yellow)
NEW Red
Alex (OG-Blue)
Nate (OG-Red)
Kristina (OG-Yellow)
Sophie (OG-Yellow)
Where does that leave us?
Before we get into the re-juggled tribes (has this ever happened twice before the merge before?!) let's look at the OG-RBY breakdown.
At the start of the episode we had 6 Red, 2 Blue, and 4 Yellow. Remarkably OG-tribal lines have remained unbroken with the votes either coming from within OG-Blue eating itself alive or OG-Red taking out OG-Yellow members. It becomes apparent that next vote is critical important for swaying any imminent merge dynamics.
If OG-Red makes it out of tribal without losing a member, they're laughing to the bank and can control the rest of the game. I suspect this is why we saw a third tribe split, primarily to create tension amongst the OG-Red folks in the micro-groups. It also could be fair to say that when half of your competitors are playing without flint or resources, in an extremely hot environment, you just don't expect them put up the same fight (and if we go really deep, why not throw the challenge to take out another non-red player...the under fueled, under resourced Sophi (OG-Blue)).
...and so Jeff rejigs the teams again. First impressions of the NEW tribes:
NEW Blue:
Sage and Shannon, the Ying-Yang sisters from different misters just can't get away from each other. The both likely can't believe their luck, with Sage having insight into Shannon's strategies and what can be described as loathing for her huggy smoozing the next level, she has an ace in the hole to play. Similarly Shannon doesn't see Sage as a threat, and I think her overall undoing is trying to win over everyone with her "you and I are BFFs" merry-go-round play style. Her thinking seems to overvalue extroverted interaction and undervalues introverted, authentic, interactions.
Steven is clearly the man under the gun. The sole OG-Yellow player in a sea of OG-Red makes him the obvious target. He jumps on Sage's reservations about Shannon's intensions and runs with it. His pitch as a bridge to OG-Yellow, much like Jason's last episode was a wise one.
Jawan was also in this episode. He appeared remarkably loyal to OG-Red until the vote and made the right call. I suspect he saw Shannon's willingness to throw him under the bus and finally clocked that the OG-Red honeymoon was over.
NEW Yellow:
This team is stacked. Three OG-Red plus the most dynamic physical player left from OG-Yellow (arguably of all folks left in the game). Sophi (OG-Blue) would be the weak link if she hadn't been taken under the wing of other players and if we over analyze the edit, she's not getting this must screen time to get snuffed out this early. Her finding an advantage and keeping it to herself should pay dividends! Rizo and Savannah continue to sit comfortably in their positions, when the hit the merge if they get too comfortable as allies, their threat level is going to spike. Something that may come into play if MC makes it and rejoins her OG-Yellow tribunates.
No issues with the reward challenge, no issues with immunity challenge. They're coasting this episode.
It will be interesting to see what role a confident and fed Sophi (OG-Blue) takes in the merge.
NEW Red:
In my humble opinion, this was the weakest of the three tribes going into the reward. Kristina had an unfortunate episode of being overwhelmed pre-challenge, and while I don't fault her for that, I do think she's the weakest player of her tribe. You could just see the confidence fading when things weren't working for her in the challenges and she'll be a vote more than a threat going forward. Of the OG-Yellow, she will be the most likely to stick around, she's the lowest threat. Sophie (OG-Yellow) who demonstrated this week that she can speak, is finally showing some strategy and teeth. From an edit point of view, the impression I'm getting is that they'll flesh her out a bit as major personalities are voted out, I don't see her as threatening at this stage, she doesn't seem to have the social capital to make big moves.
Nate just needs to get to the merge, he's got the highest threat level on his team as the sole OG-Red. He's clever and hauls ass in challenges. Watch for him to continue to buddy up with Alex to crush OG-Yellow.
Alex, has been fortunate to always been on the outside of the numbers, making his vote and his voice very important. He's a vote that folks will look to court, while he's looking to continue to build his social network. I am very curious to see if OG-Blue reunite in the merge or whether those ties are too thin to survive in the OG-Red/OG-Yellow landscape.
Tribal, or alternatively HugGate:
I really wasn't sure how this was going to go. On one side you have Steven who is very keen to get out of the crosshairs, on the other side you have a covert hug-feud between Sage and Shannon.
Shannon has been absolutely spot on in what she's tried to do in terms of building allies to manipulate at the merge. As a tribe with numbers it makes sense to build bridges with everyone to flip folks and stay with the numbers as the player pool whittles down.
Where she has fallen short is in overselling to too many (everyone) in a way that comes across as inauthentic and manipulative. I also really see a lack of emotional maturity that either comes from professionally selling an image that you want others to buy in (easier in the wellness industry where that is what people are looking for) vs. those who you are having to sell the idea that you're BFFs 4evaa OMG!! (who also recognize the wellness you are prioritize is your own).
Steven likely can't believe his luck. There is a crack in OG-Red and he plays along with Sage who is desperate to oust Shannon. Jawan doesn't take kindly to his name being thrown out there and...you have the formula for OG-Red giving away their dominant position. Shannon, smug-AF at tribal, to be honest looked more nervous, is shown the door and in the sickly sweet manner that only she can master, basically says it was all in the stars and meant to be. OK.
Back to the numbers:
We now have some interesting numbers. We are down to 5 OG-Red, vs 6 OG-Yellow/Blue. It will be interesting to see if OG-Red collapses under the reality that they are no longer sitting in the majority. Where it becomes quite interesting is in OG-Blue. Sophi is now closer to Rizo and Savannah, where she didn't have a home before. I can see her being courted aggressively by OG-Yellow members to take shots at OG-Red. Additionally, Alex has gotten along with everyone, his vote also becomes quite important if the Red v Yellow divide persists.
The fallout from Hug-Gate. Will we see rebound from Sage turning on OG-Red's Shannon? Where Jawan has gone along with the popular vote at tribal, Sage has orchestrated Shannon's downfall by highlighting her approach to most if not all of OG-Yellow/Red/Blue. She has elevated her threat level enormously and was on the outside of the original OG-Red core 4 (now 3).
Rapid thoughts on Episode 6:
1) Sage did what she needed to do for herself going into the merge. Will it burn her in the long run or will people appreciate that she stuck to her values?
2) Sophi getting a grilled cheese and an advantage in the same episode is a huge rebound for someone who has been denied just about every resource so far.
3) Will Steven make good on his offer to connect the OG-Red and OG-Yellow folks, this could be the start of dissolving old tribe lines and working with actual synergist connections
4) Kristina isn't going to survive this heat if a tribe change drops her, I know I'm on my couch in my AC, but she's the weakest physically left
5) I project that Jawan is going to get blindsided, that's it, point number 5.
6) Sophie can talk! It's interesting to hear! Hopefully she'll be relevant with Shannon no longer getting airtime.
7) Rizo and Savannah are going to have to play it cool, they've been together since the start and people are going to look to soften them up. I would go into the merge trying to minimize time together as much as possible
8) Jeff, who definitely reads this blog, clearly appreciates me writing up all the tribal strategy, so much so that he wanted me to do it again but in groups of 4. Hi Jeff!
9) MC is a beast, I want her to crush challenges post merge
10) Alex and MC now both have caught crabs
Breakout players (Fantasy Points):
Ep6: Sophi B (20 points), MC, Alex (15 points)
Season MVP Race: MC (55), Rizo (55), Alex (45 points)
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