EP5 - What the cluck?

  The Hangry Survivor - Chicken tonight

If there was ever a screen cap that captured this episodes vibe, it's Sage's standing within 3 feet of Shannon and trying not to puke. 

Going forward, I'm going to break the tribes down into their current new colours. New-Yellow and New-Blue, I'll keep their original tribe colours in brackets so we can try to organize the subliminal politicking.

A quick refresher

New Yellow - Neo-Hina

Sophi (Blue)

Savanah (Red)

Nate (Red)

Jawan (Red)

Rizo (Red)

Jason (Yellow)

Matt (Yellow) - Voted out last episode

New Blue - Neo-Kele

Alex (Blue)

Sage (Red)

Shannon (Red)

MC (Yellow)

Kristina (Yellow)

Steven (Yellow)

Sophie (Yellow)

What the cluck?

Ok, when we look at the two remaining tribes there are a couple important trends, each has a (Blue) player: an extremely non-threatening but potentially valuable ally when tipping votes or gaining leverage when eventually turning on your own tribe majority (if the tribe hasn't already made the merge). Alex and Sophi (as with other shuffled tribes in past seasons), are putting in work getting on with others but not sticking out enough to elevate their threat level. Based on the edit, this feels like the best approach given the rest of the New tribes are more focused on the (Red) vs. (Yellow) numbers.

This episode felt like it was designed to throw as many red herrings into what otherwise are clear decisions for two very happy clappy pre-shuffle majorities. Because neither (Yellow) or (Red) had major fragmentation prior to the re-shuffle, they are both doing their best to stick to their original framework. This is a rare instance in survivor where it actually makes sense to go to tribal so you can tear into your pre-shuffle opponents numbers. 

Let's break down New-Blue:

Alex is sitting pretty, he's dumped his advantage pre-shuffle, if I'm remembering correctly, no one knows he even got it aside from Sophie (Blue) so there is no reason to be suspicious of him. He gets on with everyone in the tribe and has a great balance of physical presence to haul ass in challenges and is smooth enough socially to build bridges (he does this professionally). 

(Yellow) Members seem aware they want to keep their majority in the New-Blue tribe and I'm not seeing major agency from them regarding who to shark out. This is where Sage's social play kicked things up massively. It's amazing to me how blind to Shannon's manipulation the rest of (Yellow) seemed. I think this is really a result of (Yellow) getting very comfortable with the happy go lucky vibes vs the (Red) folks who were happy to keep winning but were thinking solidly ahead, putting core 4s in place, sniffing out folks who were likely to flip. You are delusional if you think someone won't try to expertly pick your pocket for $1million. 

I think it's interesting to see Alex and Steven bond a bit over Sage's revelation. I can see the three of them developing a relationship going forward. MC remains an absolute challenge beast, I really want her to do well, I hope she'll potentially join the others in building a core on New-Blue.

I haven't recorded the amount of time Sophie is talking vs just present on the screen. This edit is a bit perplexing because I don't see her getting voted out without a reason, but I don't really see her making any moves either. May be a safe bet to see her get to 5-6 and then blindsided. Kristina is giving similar vibes, I see her getting kinda comfortable and not making enough waves to make a compelling FTC contribution, when New-Blue goes to tribal will be the first (maybe second after the Sage-Shannon revelation) kick in the ass they need.

If Shannon makes it to the merge and reunites with her (Red) teammates, she'll be a force (she's really only putting her energy into earning (Yellow-Blue) trust. If you manage to earn the trust of your opposition going into the merge, you can set up some savage blindside opportunities. But if they go to tribal, she's in extreme danger (she's overplayed her hand).

Let's break down New-Yellow:

Aside from getting the people's elbow to the dome in the challenge (care of Rizo, oops), and appearing to starve physically/mentally/emotionally, Sophi's only real threat is to herself at the moment (quitting risk). See same gameplan as Alex. 

First shot in the (Red) vs. (Yellow) battle was fired last week when Matt felt his number was up and threw a hail mary at Nate to shake up the numbers. It failed and Jason knew he was next. The Jawan is a pain in the ass/creepy thread was never going to go anywhere. He'll go when it's between him and Sophi (Blue) pre-merge if it goes to that, his flip risk is elevated, but I think we're going to see a shift in strategy from who is a risk to who am I tighter with. 

Great play from Nate at the challenge, he read his cards well and kept his vote. I think little moments like this really illustrate the nuance of the social game and quick thinking (When you're tired and hungry too!). Rizo and Savannah are chilling, I think they feel quite comfortable with the numbers and are actively trying to spread their intentions across the tribe (Savannah ensuring Nate was also part of their planning). Rizo is riding his goofy image a bit, but someone is going to notice his performance in challenges makes him a big threat. I think New-Yellow is more like to solidify him into a core and ride it as far as they can. 

Jason did what he could, his pitch as a mole for New-Yellow into (Yellow) post merge was clever. But the majority (Red) on New-Yellow saw that if you're going to have to go to tribal, and you have the numbers, that your sole goal should be eviscerate your opponents numbers.

Rapid thoughts on Episode 5:

1) Has anyone else noticed Sage cycles between Jack Nicholson, an anime character, and a mostly-regular person?

2) It was kinda refreshing to see the kind of vulnerability that the chicken situation brought out in people

3) Jawan is being painted as a bit of creep, not kidding though, that shit would drive me nuts 

4) Always check for sandbags

5) Rizo and Alex can granny-shot for days

6) Sophi (Blue) is being pushed and pushed and pushed in terms of denial of resources, it's wild when you look at what her tribe(s) haven't won

7) Respect to Nate for his quick thinking, I feel like most folks wouldn't have the sense in a sleep/calorie/comfort deprived environment like this to pull it off

8) Jason getting voted out sucks, I thought he had really good potential, but Survivor puts you in situations that are flat out unfair, the randomness of the Buff draw rears its ugly head

9) Jawan stacking the proverbial rock-deck was a masterstroke, well played!

10) Alex caught a crab.

Breakout players (Fantasy Points):

Ep5: Alex (15 points), Sage, MC, Shannon, Kristina, Stephen, Sophie (10 points)

Season MVP Race: Rizo (45), MC (40), Sage, Shannon, Kristina, Alex, Steven, Sophie (Yellow - the non-speaker) with 30 points

Stretching the odds: Sophi (OG Blue -- What is a flint, may be dying on a physical, spiritual, and emotional level) 15 points. Despite having the absolute fewest points (as we don't score before Ep3) Sophi has some of the best odds to make it to final tribal in my books. She's non-threatening, has built alliances on both sides of the tribe divide, and plays a social game that, until the numbers get very thin, does not obstruct other social players. She's a goat that has the potential to make it deep in the game and then play the card that demonstrates her subtle but focused tenacity. If Sophi doesn't quit, she'll gut it out to final tribal council, mark my words.

Tribe Points Graph:

3 points, data-nerds unite! Chelsea leads the fantasy tribes with 165 points with Alex, Rizo, Sophie (Yellow -- the non-speaking, carbs-ID-challenged one), Steve, and Sage (The people's champion)

Don't forget to catch your crabs (if you have concerns see your doctor).

R