EP4 - Post Episode 3 and 4, No carbs? That's Bananas!

 The Hangry Survivor - Bananas

So in our first analysis of the fantasy season we have a dry bite that spelt disaster for the already fragile blue boiz alliance and (a first I think) someone mind gaming themselves out of a banana snack stack reward (note: fruit = carbs, Sophie (y) this is the first impression I really have of you in this game).

Let's look at Ep3 briefly. Getting bitten by a potentially deadly snake, needing an evacuation for medical evaluation, and not being allowed to continue is probably not the exit Jake-bro-dude had in mind. It really put the rest of the blue folks in a bind deciding between a "longer" social connection with the bro-fecta (Sophie Blue) and the calm-cool-connected-and-Canadian (Jeremiah). I think Alex was absolutely right to play his idol, it gets him through tribal, lowers his threat and clearly something was coming with respect to mixing up the tribes (coming in with an idol others are going to find out about is not going to help your case).

Blue were doomed, I'm glad to see they were reshuffled into new tribes in EP4. 

Episode 4 was the awkward dance of numbers again. The new tribal lines being 4 Red, 2 Yellow, and 1 Blue (in the New Yellow Tribe) really posed the question of do you cut the legs out from under Yellow by targeting them directly, or demolish any potential sway they'd have with Sophie (Blue). 

Savannah, in my opinion, had the correct read of Sophie (Blue) as an easy ally who is looking for a home in her new tribe. Matt, who started to show his colours (and actually some really cool blindside suggestions imo, had the Red bonds not been so established), ultimately lead to his threat level elevating and getting taken out. I don't know if anyone was taking the bait on Jason being a legitimate vote target because he wasn't overtly saying he'd work with the rest of them. 

Also, MC is a challenge beast and might take an early lead in most likely to be targeted post-merge due to her physical prowess. Sage is getting more screen time for the right reasons (strategy, no not keeping blackheads in a jar), I hope she'll stick around. Shannon is getting screen time for being a sneaky snake (internally I'm hoping she gets snuffed but I hope my long game play for her to reunite with Savannah and go deep pays off!)

Breakout players (Fantasy Points):

Ep3: MC, Jeremiah, Rizo all with 20pts

Ep4: Rizo (20), and an 8 way tie of Sage, MC, Shannon, Kristina, Alex, Steven, Sophie (Yellow), and Matt at (10)

First Graph of the season:

A mixed bag with limited data. BUT! The underdogs are sitting middle of the pack, lots of season left. Congrats to Chelsea and Yale for holding pole position at the end of Ep4.

As always, hope you enjoy this bit of commentary as well as the numbers..stay snacky. I'll try to update these weekly.

R