EP 7 - Watch out for stingers, we cross pollinatin'

The Hangry Survivor - Tootin' n attempted Lootin'

Do you like horror films? This shit got scary.

Mercifully, we got the merge that everyone was hoping for. No one loses out on making the jury (which I've always thought was a bit cruel to be honest) and immunities and alliances are put to the test.

Merge Tribe - The Spectrum

Savanah (OG-Red) *loot*

Rizo (OG-Red)

Sophi (OG-Blue)

Nate (OG-Red)

Jawan (OG-Red)

Sage (OG-Red) *toot*

Alex (OG-Blue)

Steven (OG-Yellow)

MC (OG-Yellow)

Kristina (OG-Yellow)

Sophie (OG-Yellow)

The new landscape

After shuffling the deck more times that I ever remember on Survivor, we have the merge. 

A quick recap, Shannon is out (*cries in fantasy points*) and we have 5 OG-Red, 2 OG-Blue, and 4 OG-Yellow. Two OG-Red (Jawan and Sage) turned on the theme of the past few episode which was the "OG-Yellow vs OG-Red" numbers war. It was going to happen eventually, and I'm not surprised it came from the two who were outside the original "core 4" of Shannon/Rizo/Savannah/Nate from OG-Red. 

For now, and because an 11 point graph is harder to plot, let's break these competitors down by their original OG-Red vs OG-Yellow (I'm going to drop the OG- after this) positions and likelihood to stand fast vs turncoat. 

Deeply entrenched

AKA, the folks who are not jumping ship

RED

For the original and tightest of the Red tribe we have Rizo and Savannah, they have established themselves as the core two of the Red tribe. They are not budging and their loyalty to each other is not budging. These two in particular have to be careful, if they make themselves too known their threat level is through the roof. 

Rizo has been a strong challenge presence, the Riz-G-O-D can granny shot like it's nobody's business. I'm not sure the edit has lived up to his self-perception as a strategy guy vs other players but whatever he's strong. 

Savannah, holy shit I've not jumped at a such a sudden unexpected lashing out since Bilbo went ape shit over the ring in Tolkien's masterpiece. To me this was just a flare of what is an incredibly intense and competitive player. The opportunity to hamstring MC was there, but I really have to ask if it would have been worth it should she have snatched it. Savannah isn't in a desperate position where she has to stick her neck this far out to take out MC. Impulsive plays are going to happen, I just think it's going to put a lot more heat on her (had she got it or not).

YELLOW

Kristina and Sophie are Yellow through and through. I haven't seen any evidence that they're budging from this or playing in a way that deviates from this gameplan. 

Sophie-Yellow, who can speak, wins immunity in the challenge! She's the soft target for Red going in and this really throws Red's plans sideways. I hate these balance challenges, after pushing a giant heavy ball, I can't imagine balancing a ball on a stick, in the heat, yuck! Full credit where it's due, nice one Sophie (Yellow)!

Kristina, I'm trying to remember a single thing she did this episode, she didn't faint. 

Blurred Alliances

So these folks have stayed have stayed on one side of the Red/Yellow split but could abandon this line if the conditions were right

RED

We have Nate and Sophie Blue. Nate has presented as a smart player who has done a great job of showing he's a listener and a collaborator, at the end of the day he stays Red-strong. I can't help that feel if he had actually built on his conversations outside of Savannah/Rizo, that he'd still be in the game (I'm looking at you MC/Sage/Jawan/Steven...the potential for something was there but he didn't pull the trigger before it was pulled on him (more on that later).

Sophie Blue is Red through and through. We saw a bit of Blue on Blue discussion this week but Alex and Sophie haven't got a deep enough base to pull off an under the radar strategy. Sophie is still a number in Savannah's pocket and will stay there until she's voted out (either one of them). 

YELLOW

MC and Steven are both interesting cases because they've both had to collaborate with Red to survive the tribe reshuffling. Interestingly. their interactions with Red have both included Nate, which had the potential to develop into something post merge. 

MC is a challenge beast and I think is quite aware of her status as the bigger threat in the Yellow-Red divide. Savannah doesn't stick her neck out if she doesn't realize this imo, it's also possible Savannah is tired, and hungry (hangry) after not winning the challenge and her intensity (simmering under a very intense social-collaborator-facade) just breaks through. 

Steven was a good target on Yellow (if you actually have the numbers you think you do) as someone who Red must have picked up is a social and physical threat and someone who could flip Red members against the die-hard Reds. 

ORANGE

The folks from other tribes who are ready and available to carve their own path

Alex, maybe not surprisingly, has not entrenched himself in either camp. As someone with impeccable social game, he's essentially a free agent. He was frank and honest with Sophie Blue about being more Yellow aligned, but I think this was more a smokescreen to present as logically more aligned with Yellow given he's spent more time with their tribe members. I also wonder if he sees how Red aligned she is and is trying to plant the idea that she should consider all her options (vs being a barnacle on Red rock).

Sage and Jawan are the most interesting agent Orange players imo. Sage, who has demonstrated she's had enough of being undervalued by ego-centric players, has dolled out information to pry her nemesis Shannon out. We can see how she's enjoying this degree of agency and going a step forward to declare she wants Savannah out. I think Sage has one of the best reads in the game in terms of authenticity, but she has to be so careful or she's going to get bitten. 

Jawan is such an interesting character, I still can't quite hack him. He's been out the outside of Red but voted along tribal lines throughout. He has a good read of the majority and has had the good fortune to always be in the numbers (he's always had Red allies on his tribes). I called it last week and I'm maintaining that he's going to get blindsided at some point. 

Tribal, cross pollinating to see what bears fruit:

I really wasn't sure how this was going to go. If we look at the raw Red vs Yellow:

Red had to chip away at the Yellow numbers. Sophie Yellow was the soft target, won immunity, and then MC picked up immunity (again, holy shit Savannah). Steven is the most threatening next player in line, but I can't help but wonder why Red didn't pick the next softest target, Kristina, if that was their original goal. I may be misremembering, but I don't think Kristina was tight with anyone on Red. She's logically then close to Yellow, and would be a number to get out to weaken a Yellow counter attack....

Yellow's choices were not as clear cut. Savannah elevated her threat level considerably this episode. The Rizo-Savannah BFF club was on display and Yellow had the chance to snipe one of them. Rizo bluffing his immunity idol play was wise to complicate Yellow's choices. If there were any cracks in the Yellow decision making this had the potential to weaken their push significantly. Of the "soft" targets, Nate just happened to be next in line.

The real story of this episode was Jawan and Sage developing as part of team Orange and staying the course in turning against Red. I don't see them defecting completely (hence Orange) but they see their position outside of the two Red-Yellow hardcore groups and have the potential to rally numbers. With Nate-Rizo-Savannah being blind to this, their vote push didn't have a chance (despite the numbers being uncomfortably close for Steven!). 

Back to the numbers:

We are down to 4 OG-Red, vs 6 OG-Yellow/Blue. 

I would now suggest we are looking at a different breakdown: 

3 Red (Rizo-Savannah-Sophie Blue)

3 Orange (Alex-Sage-Jawan)

4 Yellow (Sophie Yellow-Kristina-Steven-MC)

What I don't think folks realize is where they all actually stand, and I hope next episode we will see the different groups fight to build their cores with FTC in mind. I expect we'll see pushes to flush idols. When Sophie Blue plays her advantage may be game breaking and one of the most important plays of this game. 

MC playing her idol was the right play in my mind. An idol that everyone knows about was a useful diversion tactic in Rizo's case, but in MC's case it just puts too much heat on her. She played it safe and that's fine. She would have been annihilated if Savannah's viper strike had paid off. I am so curious to see if the combination of Sage's anti-Savannah pitch and MC's sharing of Savannah's behaviour is enough to blast Savannah out of the game. 

Rapid thoughts on Episode 7:

1) Savannah is channeling big-viper energy

2) Rizo isn't the strategic mastermind he thinks he is.

3) I hope Steven being the big Yellow target rallies agent Orange around him, he's a likeable character and I'd like to see him have some agency in the game.

4) Kristina not being the soft target this week virtually confirms her as a lock for goat status in my mind

5) I still think Jawan is going to get burnt, he's had the benefit of numbers in every single vote and I think it's been more a product of them already being there than him orchestrating anything.

6) I love Sage, but she needs to let the louder players catch the heat or she's going to catch too much herself (She's won 1 million hearts in my mind)

7) Rizo and Savannah, arguably Red's power couple, are getting more and more attention. I think they rally others around their cause, or they're in trouble. They've lost two of the original Red to Orange, I have to wonder if they court some of Yellow.

8) Nate had a lot of potential to shadow puppet the game, he had good relations with so many folks on his original Red and some of the Yellow tribe. If he had tried to make something happen earlier he might still be in the game. I don't think he felt under threat because of his position and thus, sat pretty, unfortunately his lack of action and going with the flow led to his downfall.

9) Will agent Orange make itself known? At some point folks need to wise up to the Red-Yellow divide being superficial. I suspect both hardcore Yellow and Red will realize this, but maybe too late (everyone else will have developed their broader numbers)

10) No one caught crabs this week, but Sage had a toot (sadly, not worth fantasy points)

Breakout players (Fantasy Points):

Ep7: Sage, MC, and Sophie Yellow (20 points)

Season MVP Race: MC (75), Rizo (65), Sophie Yellow (60 points)

                       

Tribe Points Graph:

Chelsea continues to lead the fantasy tribes with 275 points, the pack is now starting to spread out with Ryan establishing themselves as a clear 2nd place and Josh sitting comfortably in third.

Underdogs (Kristina, Sophie Yellow, and Sage) remarkably sitting at 195 points! 

R